Before the year is over, the iPhone will be available in all regularly populated continents, and it’s been announced by carriers to be available shortly in an astonishing number of countries. Some of these country announcements overlap, with several carriers set to deliver iPhones. This doesn’t tell you a lot by itself, but you can extract information from it.
Obviously, having two carriers means that, at the very worst, Apple will have expanded its strategy from establishing iPhone monopolies to also establishing iPhone oligopolies. At the other end of the spectrum, there’s the possibility of some decidedly less oppressive “entirely unlocked” concept. I am guessing that the truth will fall within those boundaries (shocking!); specifically, I am guessing that the part of the new countries list that has a functioning mobile phone market and lacks complete pushovers for carriers will end up with an “open” approach, whereas the rest will end up with the same closed approach we’ve seen to date from Apple, maybe dilated a bit for good measure, once (say) AT&T customers realize just how reamed they got in comparison with the rest of the world.
The “open” approach either entails carriers selling phones with an exclusivity period, or entirely exclusive but with an option to unlock the phone, or sold at a significant discount (and locked) through the carrier compared to other avenues. It’s hard to be specific since the carrier and consumer chutzpah varies wildly across the expectant iPhonezone, but these are the options on the table. I think I’d be most okay with the “significant carrier discount” — it allows an out-of-the-box officially-supported unlocked iPhone, unheard of outside of France and a few days in Germany.
There’s another angle to this, too: What would Apple do? Apple would definitely try to keep the closed model as far as possible, due to greed and being convinced that it’d help them “make the whole banana” for the iPhone too (it won’t, but they’d think so). However, Apple would also try to keep the number of concurrent business models to an absolute minimum. And finally, the Apple of today would definitely go for market share… which means, come hell or high water, that being in all those other countries would be really alluring.
There’s more to speculate on regarding the new iPhone.