First of all, there’s a 99% chance of CNet’s report being a canard. Even the analysts mentioned in the article get several facts consistently right:
- Switching architectures is a general pain in the ass.
- Switching architectures often results in temporary loss of customers (and as a natural result, short-term profit). It takes time to get these customers back, and a big chunk of customers leave for good.
- Switching architectures takes time, and should be well thought-out.
There’s also some tangents that go undiscovered:
- Apple uses an Intel controller card for its Xserve RAID storage system.
- Apple uses an AMD processor to power its AirPort Extreme base stations.
- Apple have invested in large factories with IBM to manufacture the G5 chips, not to mention cementing G5 in their marketing as superior to x86 for two years now.
- Transitive Technologies has a sort of ‘CPU bridge’ to avoid traditional emulation but provide similar functionality, while being way faster.
And finally, the obvious cards:
- Apple laptops have had G4s for forever. It’s not going much up.
- IBM still hasn’t delivered on the 3.0GHz G5 promised two years ago.
In short, while there are wildcards, and while it theoretically, and without respect to Apple’s earlier involvement, could go either way, I think it’s much more likely that it either blows over and that the whole thing was a rumor - or that Apple has prolonged a deal with Intel about their Xserve RAID chip or even inked a new deal for a chip in a minor gadget.
Conceivable, but unlikely outcomes:
- “Asteroid”, or “Jam Box”, the audio interface FireWire breakout box that was the center of lawsuits and leaks earlier this year, sports an Intel chip.
- An iPod or iSight product is updated or released with some kind of Intel chip. (iSight HD?)
I’m-really-just-making-stuff-up-now-but-wouldn’t-it-be-cool outcomes:
- A PowerMac with one (or two) G5s, and one x86 CPU running in a master-slave arrangement, wherein whatever the x86 is running could run inside a window in OS X, providing what looks like emulation but actually uses real hardware. Could work technically with regards to near total “standards compliance” for what’s inside the PowerMac G5 today, but how the CPUs would cooperate and if it would actually sell remains to be seen.
(As an asides, the “die Intel” attitude that’s alive and thriving on various Mac forums is something I consider foolish. Intel do know their stuff and for all I know, aren’t into more shady business than Apple is. Irrational fear of the “intel inside” ditty suddenly trailing every Apple ad is just that - irrational. Apple hasn’t showcased the brand of the one product in which it has an Intel chip outside of an Intel conference, where Apple didn’t put it on display but Intel did. The “intel inside” ditty is something that PC makers get paid to run and as such is entirely opt-in. And threats to leave Apple if Macs go Intel are just threats - if you stayed with Macs through thick and thin, but will leave at the drop of a hat of political reasons because you just don’t like Intel, wouldn’t that be downright stupid? Where are you gonna go? And lastly… which company is Apple throwing a hammer at in the 1984 ad? Which company is making their flagship CPU now?)
Other predictions for WWDC:
- G5, or faster G4s at the very least, for the laptop-CPU series - Mac mini, iBook and PowerBook (maybe save for the Mac mini, since the eMac has a G4). Curiously, these three are the Mac models that have gone the longest without an update. The Mac mini, all things considered, will probably get a speed bump and Tiger bundled either way.
- A new standard iPod - either with new features or with iPod photo features rolled into it (which would allow for a new top-level iPod - new features or bigger hard drive?)
- The iTunes phone. I still hate that they picked Motorola - Sony Ericsson and Nokia both make easier to use and cooler phones, and they’ve already got a partnership with Sony on some levels.
- Either plenty of new software or plenty of new hardware - or radio silence. A new iSight? Asteroid/Jam Box? A 17″ Cinema Display? The AirPort Express AV? An AirTunes remote? Most of Apple’s software has already been updated in the latest 6 months, and in fact most hardware, spare for the iBook, as well.
- iTunes 5.0. I remain optimistic that “4.9″ used to demonstrate podcasting (where it was the only addition reported) was a throw-away decoy (after all, so was the Bonjour (then Rendezvous)-powered music library sharing build used in MacWorld New York 2002). iTunes 4 is over two years old and could use some new paint. Wow us, Apple.